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Loot boxes: how "just one more pack" became a billion-dollar business

You open a pack, hoping for the player you want. You do not get it. So you buy another. That feeling is not an accident. It is the product.

6 min read

You know the feeling. You have a bit of in-game currency, there is a pack you could open, and maybe, just maybe, this is the one with the player you want. You open it. It is not. So you think about buying just one more.

That feeling is not an accident. It is the product.

What is actually happening

A loot box (EA calls them packs, other games call them crates, cases or chests) is a randomised reward you open without knowing what is inside. Sometimes you earn them by playing. Often you buy them, with real money, or with an in-game currency you bought with real money. The thing you are paying for is not the reward. It is the chance of the reward. You are paying to find out.

Translation: You hand over money before you know what you get. The odds of getting the good stuff are set by the company, and in most games you cannot see them clearly. Pay first, random outcome, house sets the odds. That is the structure of a slot machine.

Why studios love them

For a game company, this is close to a perfect business. A normal game sells once. A pack sells over and over, to the same player, forever, and it costs the company almost nothing to make another digital pack. For EA, the packs inside Ultimate Team are the engine of its "live services" business, and live services, not the games themselves, now make up the majority of EA's revenue. Year after year, that is well over a billion dollars from people buying chances.

Translation: The game is the shop window. The packs are the actual business. That is why your favourite game gets a new "season" of packs every year. Not mainly to make the game better, but to restart the spending.

Where it gets uncomfortable

Because the mechanic looks so much like gambling, governments have started asking whether it is gambling. Belgium restricted paid loot boxes under its gambling laws. Other countries have reviewed them. The UK looked hard at it and, for now, left it to the industry to police itself. The reason this matters more in gaming than almost anywhere else is that the players are often young. A mechanic engineered to make spending feel exciting, aimed at an audience that is still learning what money is worth, is a genuinely live ethical question, not a settled one.

Translation: It is the same instinct casinos are built on, but pointed at an audience too young to walk into one. That is exactly why regulators keep circling it.

Ask yourself
Someone designed those odds, and they designed them to make money, not to be fair to you. Next time you are about to buy "just one more," ask the one question that protects you everywhere, not just in games. What is the actual chance I am paying for, and who set it? If you cannot see the odds, that is the answer.

Two ways to see it

For: it is legal, hugely profitable and predictable, and it funds games people play for free. Plenty of players spend a little, enjoy it, and never feel harmed.

Against: it leans on a gambling-style mechanic, often aimed at young people, with odds the player usually cannot see. If regulators decide it is gambling, a huge slice of some companies' revenue is suddenly at risk.

References

EA annual report (live services / net bookings); Belgian Gaming Commission ruling on loot boxes (2018); UK DCMS response on loot boxes (2022).

This explains how something works. It is not telling you what to do with your money. Ask AYO does not give financial advice. We just translate. Decide for yourself.

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